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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/fake-inflation-expectations-meet-good-and-bad-inflation?post=119521&uid=4798

You have to ask yourselves if inflation expectation increases amount to fake news. Here is a recent FRED chart of inflation expectations:



We know that this inflation expectation increase has failed in the past. It failed in 2013/14 with the bond tantrum. It failed in early 2016. It failed in 2012, and in 2011, and in 2010, and in December, 2007. That was a big, big fail. This is the most failed economic indicator ever devised! But people continue to push it as if it is truth. Maybe eventually it will be true, kind of like those who predict recessions every year will get it right now and then.

Here is the longer chart showing just how this indicator is always bullish, with results that are, well, just the opposite:

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/dr-lamberts-effective-demand-recession-indicator?post=119438&uid=4798

There is a simple explanation of Edward Lambert's concept of Effective Demand. It is provided by Angry Bear blogger, Steve Roth.  This is just an explanation that we all can understand. Applying this guide to the real economy may change your thinking, and certainly will add an economic indicator to your arsenal.

Here are 5 points of the model:

1.Real GDP: During the business cycle, when real GDP goes up, so does Effective Demand.

2. Labor Share: When labor share rises, effective demand increases due to more relative power for household consumption demand. 

3.Capacity Utilization: When capacity is heavily utilized, then it costs more to produce goods.

4. Unemployment Rate: When unemployment declines, effective demand declines. At the full employment limit, it is difficult for the economy to produce more. Full unemploy…

Kevin is arguing on Facebook for a continued boycott of Colin Kaepernick from the NFL. I pointed out a few things to Kevin:
So, Kevin, what if I told you that America lost respect the day JFK was assassinated, and the military industrial complex that our Republican president, Dwight Eisenhower, warned us about, took over our nation. So, this is not the nation you think it is. It is not the nation of Ike and JFK. And if you think Colin was spitting in the face of you and me, you don't get it. America is no longer the same great nation, and therefore the flag itself is tarnished, probably forever.
And:
Kevin, you probably are like most Americans, who never knew that the assassination of JFK was a COUP! This coup has resulted in the desire of certain elite to push for a racial war against blacks, and a cultural war against Muslims. It is all part of the plan and you can't see it. I feel sorry for you Kevin McMillan. The day that JFK was assassinated, America turned from a democracy…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/will-rogers-knew-trickle-up-wont-increase-money-velocity?post=119150&uid=4798

Money theory is mostly a fraud to convince people that regular folks should not accumulate too much money. The economists all fear money velocity. They are likely very well meaning and are textbook sound, but certainly they do unknowingly help advance what I believe to be a scam. The following statement by Will Rogers is worth more than all the economists put into a basket as to its veracity about the ridiculousness of fearing a little money velocity:
This election was lost four and six years ago, not this year. They [Republicans] didn’t start thinking of the old common fellow till just as they started out on the election tour. The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover was an engineer. He knew that water trickles down. Put it uphill and let it g…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/real-estate--reits/how-to-track-the-trump-housing-bubble?post=118723&uid=4798

Tracking the likely Trump housing bubble will be helpful to economists, investors, renters, potential home buyers and home sellers. It is not an absolute given that there will be a housing bubble under President Trump, but there could very well be one. There could be a downturn before a bubble. And a bubble will have to be limited, most likely, by a Fed unwilling to let the leash expand, which now holds the speculating canines back. There may be more barking than a biting bubble.

Some things will have to change in order for a housing bubble to occur under Donald Trump. This may not be an exhaustive guide to tracking a potential housing bubble but certainly could help many do so:

1. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureauwill have to be abolished or made comatose by the Trump administration simply defunding it. This…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/john-mauldin-discusses-what-could-go-wrong?post=118623&uid=4798

John Mauldin published an article regarding the economics of Donald Trump. I share many of his views. I think the article deserves to be discussed further.

It isn't as if John Mauldin is happy with the continual drive toward negative yields and the new normal. I believe he is like many, willing to fight for higher interest rates within reason and within the economic boundaries that exist. He is on board with the Fed, unlike other central banks, and is willing to risk recession to avoid negative rates:

Meanwhile, the Fed is in the middle of a long-overdue policy turn. There’s still a risk that they will find they started tightening just in time for a recession, which is also long overdue. I was convinced last summer that they would push rates negative in that scenario. Negative rates could yet happen, but I think they wi…

The Anderson Family has talented people from both sides of the tree.

The Sephardic side, with Armando Ramirez as Gary Anderson's natural father, has had a professional musician, Columbia University grad,  a leader of a large labor union for nurses, and a professional chef. The goal is to find out more about that side in terms of DNA and history. One thing is certain from DNA testing. Gary Anderson had relatives who lived in North Africa as a smaller percentage of DNA, but a real and significant percentage. He also had relatives who lived in the Canary Islands. That is evident by some admixture tests at Gedmatch. 

The English side, with the Fentons and the Wrens, has an interesting history and a trace but certain DNA connection to Ashkenazi Jewish people. The Fentons were mostly English, and they lived mostly in the Northern part of England just south of Scotland. Gary Anderson's mother, Edna Fenton Mass, moved first to Canada and then to the Bay Area near San Francisco. Her moth…