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Learn Economics

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Learn economics. Topics in Economics can give even the newbie insights into how the economies of the world work with a focus on China and the USA. There are 30 topics listed with articles on those subjects, as well as a glossary of terms.
I have written a lot of vetted articles that are exclusive** to Talkmarkets. Sorting a portion of them by subject will give the reader an opportunity to make sense of it all. I am adding a glossary of terms at the bottom of this page.

For readers interested in economic subjects of the day, these top 30 themes are my efforts to make understanding economics easier:

I have pinned the following article to the top because it is an insight into my personal life, as well as a commentary on isms. Capitalism is still the greatest system for creating wealth. However, it is often mixed, and mixturism is a factor in its success or failure:




1. China! 

Dangerous History Repeats

Trump May Be Wrong About Winning a Trade War

Keynes and Trump Tariffs
The Achilles Heel of Tru…
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Fed's Andolfatto, Powell, and the Secret Goal of the Fed

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/financial/feds-andolfatto-powell-and-the-secret-goal-of-the-fed?post=173896&uid=4798

Before discussing Andolfatto, it is perhaps important for people to understand that labor power, unions, shortages, demands for wage increases, are weak following a major credit incident like the Great Recession. But as labor becomes more bold, perhaps one day, it will seek greater pay and power over procuring pay.

However, it does not seem like that behavior is at all imminent. That behavior has existed in the past. But as labor had power in the 50's and 60's, that power is now gone. In fact, labor is very, very weak. That plays against the Fed's desire to keep the Phillips curve in play as discussed below. Following the discussion of Andolfatto, we need to take a look at Ellen Brown's recent article, because it explains much, but not all of Fed behavior. Lastly, we can take a look at the statu…
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Donald Trump Was Elected by Farmers and They Are Worried

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/donald-trump-was-elected-by-farmers-and-they-are-worried?post=171744&uid=4798

Ginseng farmers in the red state of Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump. And they did so knowing their entire crop of cool ginseng is shipped to China! Tariffs are potentially in place for larger crops like Soybeans, as the trade war escalates, but ginseng is included.

That ginseng, a desired cool ginseng superior to the Canadian version, is being targeted shows me that China is very meticulous in potentially decimating the Trump base. Jim Schumacher, a ginseng farmer, made this incredible statement, and a similar one is being made by Wall Street:

"Maybe [people just didn't hear it], and maybe they didn't expect it to go this far. A lot of the things said on the campaign trail were more threats and things like that, I would think, and you just don't expect it to materialize, probably. So it…
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Peter G. Peterson Turned Entitlement Into a Bad Word

This article was published to my personal Talkmarkets blog and is my opinion only, but I think you will find it interesting: https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/gary-anderson/blog/bonds/peter-g-peterson-turned-entitlement-into-a-bad-word?post=170114&uid=4798

Peter G. Peterson recently passed away at the age of 91. He was lauded for his philanthropy, for his willingness to bring right and left into the foundation containing his name, that he generously funded, and for his thoughtfulness. But the truth is, Pete Peterson forever split and damaged America by making entitlement a bad word.

Pete Peterson is everything that Americans should fear from those who attended the University of Chicago, where he received his MBA. From Leo Strauss onward to Paul Wolfowitz, the university has produced some real villains. Peterson fits the mold, but was cunning in his ability to look centrist. As Leo Strauss, father of the neocons, who taught at the university, once said, keep the form of democrac…
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Trump Fail; Tourism Declines in USA

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets. Note tourism has bounced back some if you look at the updated chart, but it is no longer a growth industry because of Trump's offending the rest of the world, while it is a growth industry elsewhere: https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/trump-fail-tourism-declines-in-usa?post=169321&uid=4798

Tourism has declined significantly over the course of the first year of the Donald Trump presidency. #Trumpfail is a hashtag that can be clearly applied to both tourism arrivals and tourism revenues.

World travel is growing at a pace of 3.5 to 4.5 per year. But US tourism declined in 2017. Tourism is considered a export, and while Trump says increasing exports is central to his policy, tourism is declining. While the United States does not strongly rely on foreign tourism, our nation relies on it significantly.

A series of charts illustrate what is going on in the United States and the world, as it pertains to tourism:


…
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The Fed Will Take the Stock Market Down

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/the-fed-will-take-the-stock-market-down?post=168127&uid=4798

There is a warning from Tim Duy that the Fed views inflation as being in the danger zone. This does not mean the Fed is right. It does not mean the Fed is wrong. But it means the Fed will likely take down the stock market.

The capitalist fear of workers making too much money is now coupled with the Fed's understanding that bonds are collateral, in such massive amounts that they simply cannot tolerate large jumps in long interest rates.

By hitting the short rates hard, the Fed will give confidence to those in the bond market that long bonds are still worth buying. If there is an inversion, oh well.

This is what came from the Fed itself, even though it is not reaching its 2 percent inflation target:

In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between av…
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Bond Vigilantes, Liberty Street Fed Collateral Study, and Art Cashin

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/bond-vigilantes-liberty-street-fed-collateral-study-and-art-cashin?post=167584&uid=4798

Art Cashin clarified the limits of volatility, as his statement about the 3 percent barrier to 10 year bond yields caused yields to decline. I don't know if the barrier is permanent and an accurate measure, or if breaking it a little bit would not cause chaos. But clearly, owners of stocks and bonds took Cashin seriously, and the 49th tantrum which goes for higher yield, was stopped in its tracks.

Well, I exaggerate. It may just be a few efforts at tantrum attacks on bond yields since 2013. But it is so continually attempted that it seems like 49 tries at it! Here is my take with a little help from Liberty Fed analysts, who say that there is something at work regarding long bonds that does not reflect traditional market moves.

Bond Tantrums and Goldman Sachs

So then, what is going on with all these …
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Corporate Debt as Economic Indicator: Jesse Colombo

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/corporate-debt-as-economic-indicator-jesse-colombo?post=167199&uid=4798

Corporate debt as an economic indicator is highlighted by charts provided by Real Investment research, and author Jesse Colombo. The charts are important, because there is a recurring pattern. I have isolated three of the charts that point out late cycle danger lurking for stocks and corporate bonds. This is not an analysis of treasury bonds, which will likely behave differently in a downturn.

We can see that danger lurks as corporate America's debt load soars. However, Year Over Year percentage change has shown that this debt does not always bring on a recession, as we see in the early 1980's in chart 1. Also, debt is high now, but it has been higher with regard to percentage change, seen in chart 1 as well.

The vulnerability has more to do with interest rates impacting this debt. Chart one shows danger, but …
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