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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets-education/trade-deficits-trump-tirades-paris-accords?post=137234&uid=4798

With Donald Trump facing government and media pressure for his unusual behavior in Europe as well as with the ongoing Russian probes, we at least can interpret his views about Germany and the Eurozone and regarding the Paris Accords on climate change. It is possible to see where he is right and where he is wrong, and where he has no solution other than what could be considered a hostile act.

Donald Trump is partially right about Germany. Germany does use the Euro as a hammer to increase trade. If we were dealing with the German Mark, it would be stronger than the Euro, and Germany would not be able to dominate trade like it does. 
However, there are other issues at work with the German trade deficit and with trade deficits in general that make the issue more complex. Asset prices and inflation are affect…

This article was published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/financial/fiat-money-helicopter-drops-zuckerberg-and-the-big-myth?post=136694&uid=4798

How do we weigh the debate about money, whether it is fiat or  something else? This question has been at the forefront of economic debate since President Richard M Nixon took US currency off of the gold standard. After this discussion of fiat money we can see at the end of the article how this applies to helicopter money in US history as well as a real comprehensive HM for America.

Helicopter money has big advantages over universal basic income which is being pushed by Silicon Valley leaders and Mark Zuckerberg. More on that later. But back to fiat currency concepts.

It is true that US currency cannot be redeemed for gold and many say that qualifies it for the label of "fiat currency".  It is not convertible. But is it backed or secured? At least some of the currency is secured. Federal Reserve notes a…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/helicopter-money-not-bond-destruction-must-replace-debt-forgiveness?post=136378&uid=4798

It does not look like Donald Trump is going to break through the New Normal of derivative economics. Derivatives present a very big problem for governments as they force government to reject debt forgiveness, to people or to other, weaker, governments, even when it makes perfect sense. The concept of  Jubilee and debt forgiveness functioned in history in a way that it cannot now. 
We can look at the history of debt forgiveness briefly, and then explain why Helicopter Money must replace this old method of balancing economic interests. Ellen Brown explores some solutions, including one very problematic one that I address later, as solutions to the possible need for write downs in the EU.
Most everyone knows about the Jubilees of Old Israel. But debt forgiveness was a manifestation of the strength of …

This article was first published on my Talkmarkets personal blog: http://www.talkmarkets.com/contributor/gary-anderson/blog/economics--politics/the-curse-of-trump-is-in-cutting-back-on-the-poor?post=136270&uid=4798

The low GDP numbers we have are a concern, because the lower growth is, the harder it is to sustain social programs. However, as the chart shows, the United States is not exactly in its worse place when it comes to debt to GDP levels:


The Trump administration and the pundits who are likely paid to share his stories are all saying this is safety net unsustainable. Certainly, 2017 GDP has started out poorly at 0.7 percent for the first quarter. And that is a concern. But what if that is more an observation about how Trump has impacted Americans than about anything else? Maybe Trump is a recession in the making!

And Trump wants to pass the potential savings gained from the backs of the poor to wealthy people. That makes no sense at all as capital already has been winning …

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics-education/fed-vp-williamson-destroys-inflation-hawks?post=135958&uid=4798

Inflation hawks have ratcheted up inflation expectations with limited results. They are like the guy whose ship came in while he was at the airport. They base inflation expectations on CPI when the Fed measures PCE. Dr Stephen Williamson destroyed the inflation hawks back in April of 2017, but most of the pundits were not paying attention.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), measures the cost of living by measuring a pre-chosen basket of goods. The CPI includes everything, including food and energy. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index does not include the cost of food and energy because they are volatile and change often. The Fed seeks to measure underlying inflation.

The Fed looks, as Dr Williamson has said, at PCE, not at CPI. And since the Fed looks at PCE, the St Louis Fed Vice Preside…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/fed-choice-destroy-stocks-or-destroy-housing?post=135926&uid=4798

If we are to believe reports regarding stocks and the housing market, the Fed could be in a box. It could destroy stocks, or destroy the housing market depending on which way interest rates go.

The recovery in stocks has been driven by financials. The reflation/inflation trade was all the rage when Donald Trump took office. But it is starting to look like this was just another bond tantrum that kind of came and went. Lots of people staked their reputations on this inflation trade.

JP Morgan has warned that a decline in rates could severely impact the stock market. It wants some inflation at this late date. But the Fed is not cooperating, as Tim Duy has said that inflation and unemployment are too low and are preventing the Fed from reaching its goals.




And it looks like we are seeing some problems on the demand side. Reta…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/where-does-japans-economy-stand?post=135762&uid=4798

Where does Japan's economy stand? Well, we know from Scott Sumner that employment is high, unemployment is very low, and stimulus appears to be working. We can see that capacity utilization is quite high in Japan compared to the mid 70's for the United States:

So, based on low unemployment and high capacity utilization, where does Japan stand? Edward Lambert of Effective Demand Research said this in general about economies:

Let me boil this down… There is an equilibrium point between supply and demand that determines the scale of output and employment, all at the aggregate level. As Keynes saw it, supply and demand both increase as output increases, with more demand than supply. But demand increases at a slower rate than output, so that there is a point at which they cross and are in equilibrium. At this point, output…