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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/trump-may-be-wrong-about-winning-a-trade-war?post=178980&uid=4798

Donald Trump may be very wrong about the USA winning a trade war. Yes, the US imports the most, so it would theoretically win a trade war if it imported less. However, the impact of all this would fall upon the consumer. Producers could win in America, while consumers will surely lose.
America's Consumer Is Weak

The consumer in America may no longer be wealthy enough to withstand a major trade war. China and other nations have consumers who consume better quality products. They are simply not as austere as Americans are in their buying habits, as their savings rate is low, their debt is high, and their wages are weak.

Americans, as the decline in prosperity on mainstreet has hit hard since the Great Recession, buy based on price. Therefore, they will balk at higher prices. Companies may not be able to make it in Ame…

I reject the doctrine of regime change. It is a Zionist doctrine (Oded Yinon). It is also an American doctrine that has seen presidential assassinations. It has impoverished the middle east.

However, there are American politicians like Tulsi Gabbard who oppose regime change who may have backing from Russia. I do not know this for sure but I want to go on record as opposing all Russian interference in United States elections. I am not yet accusing Gabbard of Russian ties, but a prudent politician (oxymoron?) should know where every penny comes from.

We should have peaceful relations with the Russians. And we should limit our involvement in the middle east. But our leaders should make those decisions free of outside influence, whether it comes from Russia or Israel  or Saudi Arabia or any other nation.

I think our leaders are influenced too much by other nations. Whatever happened to the National Interest? Now we hear the US wants to steal Syrian oil. If nations don't behave, all i…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/energy/caterpillar-confirms-kaleckis-historical-truth-about-the-business-cycle?post=177347&uid=4798

Caterpillar's CEO, Jim Umpleby has told investors that there will be no new plants constructed even though orders have tripled for the company. From this Reuters article we see that:

Years of watching Caterpillar and other big manufacturers cut inventories, close plants and axe workers in the last downturn has embedded caution in Kirsh’s ambition to expand after the surge in orders, reflecting a more fundamental shift in how many industrial businesses view expansions, according to interviews with Caterpillar executives, more than a half-dozen Caterpillar suppliers and U.S. economic data.
“I just wasn’t sure it was real,” said Kirsh, speaking from a windowless office at the front of Kirsh Foundry Inc., in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin, which makes metal parts for Caterpillar and other customers.
Even wit…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/trump-gives-russia-amazing-leverage-over-the-oil-market?post=177015&uid=4798

Donald Trump has given Russia's increased leverage over the world oil market. His policies towards Iran and Venezuela are putting output at risk. Iran will benefit greatly from higher oil prices as they ramp down production. As the chart below shows, Russia is not producing more oil either. But the oil being produced is becoming ever more valuable.

Donald Trump has put the trade war on hold as it pertains to China. But Russia, the EU and Japan are still making trade war noise since Trump not only raised tariffs on Russian steel, but also on Japan, an ally of the United States. So, we have the uncomfortable reality that China gets a break and Japan, an ally, does not.

Russia has power not only to impose tariffs, but also the power to reduce oil production. With the China/Russia oil deal likely falling…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/technology/the-waymo-tesla-self-driving-con?post=176157&uid=4798

The Waymo Self Driving Con is gearing up. This is my strong opinion, but it appears to be backed up by fact. For example, Waymo CEO John Krafcik is not telling the truth when he said at a web summit in Lisbon:
Fully self-driving cars are here. Even Tesla has on its website as of the time of this writing:

All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver.  But the truth is, these Teslas do not have fully self-driving capability. Recently one crashed into a fully stopped large vehicle after failing to brake. It was going 60 miles per hour. This is not indicative of full capability as a self driving vehicle! In my view, Krafcik and Elon Musk are behaving like confidence men ie. con men, in making cl…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/financial/feds-andolfatto-powell-and-the-secret-goal-of-the-fed?post=173896&uid=4798

Before discussing Andolfatto, it is perhaps important for people to understand that labor power, unions, shortages, demands for wage increases, are weak following a major credit incident like the Great Recession. But as labor becomes more bold, perhaps one day, it will seek greater pay and power over procuring pay.

However, it does not seem like that behavior is at all imminent. That behavior has existed in the past. But as labor had power in the 50's and 60's, that power is now gone. In fact, labor is very, very weak. That plays against the Fed's desire to keep the Phillips curve in play as discussed below. Following the discussion of Andolfatto, we need to take a look at Ellen Brown's recent article, because it explains much, but not all of Fed behavior. Lastly, we can take a look at the statu…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/donald-trump-was-elected-by-farmers-and-they-are-worried?post=171744&uid=4798

Ginseng farmers in the red state of Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump. And they did so knowing their entire crop of cool ginseng is shipped to China! Tariffs are potentially in place for larger crops like Soybeans, as the trade war escalates, but ginseng is included.

That ginseng, a desired cool ginseng superior to the Canadian version, is being targeted shows me that China is very meticulous in potentially decimating the Trump base. Jim Schumacher, a ginseng farmer, made this incredible statement, and a similar one is being made by Wall Street:

"Maybe [people just didn't hear it], and maybe they didn't expect it to go this far. A lot of the things said on the campaign trail were more threats and things like that, I would think, and you just don't expect it to materialize, probably. So it…