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Gary Anderson's Talkmarkets Articles by Subject

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I have written a lot of vetted articles that are exclusive** to Talkmarkets. Sorting a portion of them by subject will give the reader an opportunity to make sense of it all. I am adding a glossary of terms at the bottom of this page.

For readers interested in economic subjects of the day, these top 30 themes are my efforts to make understanding economics easier:

1. Housing and AI Bubble Causes:
Fed Premeditated Mispricing of Risk in Housing, Oil, Junk Bonds and Other Markets 

The Great Artificial Intelligence Bubble and Scam

2. Great Recession causes:
The Federal Reserve Knew LIBOR Was Exploding in 2007 and Did Nothing
LIBOR Destroyed Subprime, But the Fed Deepened the Great Recession
Proof the Federal Reserve Was Responsible for the Housing Bubble and Crash
3. Tracking a Potential New Housing Bubble:
How to Track the Trump Housing Bubble

This Is What Jamie Dimon Wants for Housing

4. History of Hoarding the New Gold (Tr…

Trump's Embracing Unions Will Cause Economic and Oil Pipeline Strife

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This article was first published on my personal blog at Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/contributor/gary-anderson/blog/commodities/trumps-embracing-unions-will-cause-economic-and-oil-strife?post=119777&uid=4798

Face it, Donald Trump moved sharply to the left when he embraced unions on the first day of his occupation of the White House. Republicans are simply giddy. Union leaders clapped. Trump did not want a free trade agreement, the TPP, with nations that could have undercut US workers. Jobs and production could have been shifted to nations such as Malaysia.

So, what are the pros and cons of Trump's new found connection with labor? After all, he had illegally operated Trump tower for two years as cocktail waitresses and waiters tried to organize Trump Hotel. People in Las Vegas were perplexed by his resistance to the powerful culinary union given his support for labor unions in the past. He finally settled with the union just before taking office.

Of course everyone …

Fake Inflation Expectations Meet Good and Bad Inflation

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/fake-inflation-expectations-meet-good-and-bad-inflation?post=119521&uid=4798

You have to ask yourselves if inflation expectation increases amount to fake news. Here is a recent FRED chart of inflation expectations:



We know that this inflation expectation increase has failed in the past. It failed in 2013/14 with the bond tantrum. It failed in early 2016. It failed in 2012, and in 2011, and in 2010, and in December, 2007. That was a big, big fail. This is the most failed economic indicator ever devised! But people continue to push it as if it is truth. Maybe eventually it will be true, kind of like those who predict recessions every year will get it right now and then.

Here is the longer chart showing just how this indicator is always bullish, with results that are, well, just the opposite:

Dr.Lambert's Effective Demand Recession Indicator

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/dr-lamberts-effective-demand-recession-indicator?post=119438&uid=4798

There is a simple explanation of Edward Lambert's concept of Effective Demand. It is provided by Angry Bear blogger, Steve Roth.  This is just an explanation that we all can understand. Applying this guide to the real economy may change your thinking, and certainly will add an economic indicator to your arsenal.

Here are 5 points of the model:

1.Real GDP: During the business cycle, when real GDP goes up, so does Effective Demand.

2. Labor Share: When labor share rises, effective demand increases due to more relative power for household consumption demand. 

3.Capacity Utilization: When capacity is heavily utilized, then it costs more to produce goods.

4. Unemployment Rate: When unemployment declines, effective demand declines. At the full employment limit, it is difficult for the economy to produce more. Full unemploy…

Colin Kaepernick and the American Empire

Kevin is arguing on Facebook for a continued boycott of Colin Kaepernick from the NFL. I pointed out a few things to Kevin:
So, Kevin, what if I told you that America lost respect the day JFK was assassinated, and the military industrial complex that our Republican president, Dwight Eisenhower, warned us about, took over our nation. So, this is not the nation you think it is. It is not the nation of Ike and JFK. And if you think Colin was spitting in the face of you and me, you don't get it. America is no longer the same great nation, and therefore the flag itself is tarnished, probably forever.
And:
Kevin, you probably are like most Americans, who never knew that the assassination of JFK was a COUP! This coup has resulted in the desire of certain elite to push for a racial war against blacks, and a cultural war against Muslims. It is all part of the plan and you can't see it. I feel sorry for you Kevin McMillan. The day that JFK was assassinated, America turned from a democracy…

Will Rogers Knew Trickle Up Won't Increase Money Velocity

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/will-rogers-knew-trickle-up-wont-increase-money-velocity?post=119150&uid=4798

Money theory is mostly a fraud to convince people that regular folks should not accumulate too much money. The economists all fear money velocity. They are likely very well meaning and are textbook sound, but certainly they do unknowingly help advance what I believe to be a scam. The following statement by Will Rogers is worth more than all the economists put into a basket as to its veracity about the ridiculousness of fearing a little money velocity:
This election was lost four and six years ago, not this year. They [Republicans] didn’t start thinking of the old common fellow till just as they started out on the election tour. The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover was an engineer. He knew that water trickles down. Put it uphill and let it g…

How to Track the Trump Housing Bubble

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/real-estate--reits/how-to-track-the-trump-housing-bubble?post=118723&uid=4798

Tracking the likely Trump housing bubble will be helpful to economists, investors, renters, potential home buyers and home sellers. It is not an absolute given that there will be a housing bubble under President Trump, but there could very well be one. There could be a downturn before a bubble. And a bubble will have to be limited, most likely, by a Fed unwilling to let the leash expand, which now holds the speculating canines back. There may be more barking than a biting bubble.

Some things will have to change in order for a housing bubble to occur under Donald Trump. This may not be an exhaustive guide to tracking a potential housing bubble but certainly could help many do so:

1. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureauwill have to be abolished or made comatose by the Trump administration simply defunding it. This…

John Mauldin Discusses What Could Go Wrong

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/john-mauldin-discusses-what-could-go-wrong?post=118623&uid=4798

John Mauldin published an article regarding the economics of Donald Trump. I share many of his views. I think the article deserves to be discussed further.

It isn't as if John Mauldin is happy with the continual drive toward negative yields and the new normal. I believe he is like many, willing to fight for higher interest rates within reason and within the economic boundaries that exist. He is on board with the Fed, unlike other central banks, and is willing to risk recession to avoid negative rates:

Meanwhile, the Fed is in the middle of a long-overdue policy turn. There’s still a risk that they will find they started tightening just in time for a recession, which is also long overdue. I was convinced last summer that they would push rates negative in that scenario. Negative rates could yet happen, but I think they wi…