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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/keynes-and-trump-tariffs?post=180941&uid=4798

It is important to look at the arguments for tariffs in the Great Depression era of the 1930's if we are to understand the full danger they bring to the world.

In modern times, the basic argument against tariffs is of course, the complexity of the world we live in. Something labelled made in America may have parts from different nations. Same holds true with something made in Mexico. But in the days of the Great Depression, the complexity did not exist.

But in the Great Depression, the issue was a simple one. Tariffs are difficult to roll back. They cannot be applied temporarily. Of course, the argument that they could be applied temporarily was made by John Maynard Keynes, British economist, and the most influential economist of his time. keynes was a free trader who saw the need to modify his views as the Great Depression b…

It is important to look at all things Hitler when attempting to analyse Donald Trump. Examples of this are the similarity of their statements and actions, including the separation of children from their parents. This was a tactic used by Adolph Hitler for intimidation of Jews before and during the Holocaust.

While Trump's actions have not risen to the level of evil of Nazi Germany, the inability to relocate parents to children based on this flawed activity is certainly Nazi-like. The suffering of children and of parents who love them is disturbing. The crying and suffering has been documented. It is really a dreadful situation Donald Trump and his compassionless architect Stephen Miller have created. When Steve Bannon was fired by POTUS, Miller was retained. I thought at the time that was a bad sign.

Trump borrows many sayings and actions from Hitler himself! This is not to say that Obama and other presidents have not dabbled in detention camps, even to the point of separation of…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/will-canadian-boycott-start-with-kentucky-whiskey?post=179219&uid=4798

It is interesting to look at the products that Canada may decide to boycott if the trade war with Canada heats up. This boycott may be the only thing that shows Donald Trump that he is not winning. This boycott could end up saving America and Canada a lot of pain in the future but boycotts hurt.

While we hope things don't get so bad in Canada with trade tariffs that boycotts are needed, certainly they are a tool that could bring restraint to governments that are perceived to be out of control.

We know Donald Trump thinks that a pending trade war is just about leaders. That shows a misplaced arrogance. Boycotts can work and are a patriotic action. But they should be a last resort action if leaders fail to act.





Boycotting Whiskey

Boycotting whiskey could be the most effective of all boycotts. Whiskey was popular,…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/trump-may-be-wrong-about-winning-a-trade-war?post=178980&uid=4798

Donald Trump may be very wrong about the USA winning a trade war. Yes, the US imports the most, so it would theoretically win a trade war if it imported less. However, the impact of all this would fall upon the consumer. Producers could win in America, while consumers will surely lose.
America's Consumer Is Weak

The consumer in America may no longer be wealthy enough to withstand a major trade war. China and other nations have consumers who consume better quality products. They are simply not as austere as Americans are in their buying habits, as their savings rate is low, their debt is high, and their wages are weak.

Americans, as the decline in prosperity on mainstreet has hit hard since the Great Recession, buy based on price. Therefore, they will balk at higher prices. Companies may not be able to make it in Ame…

I reject the doctrine of regime change. It is a Zionist doctrine (Oded Yinon). It is also an American doctrine that has seen presidential assassinations. It has impoverished the middle east.

However, there are American politicians like Tulsi Gabbard who oppose regime change who may have backing from Russia. I do not know this for sure but I want to go on record as opposing all Russian interference in United States elections. I am not yet accusing Gabbard of Russian ties, but a prudent politician (oxymoron?) should know where every penny comes from.

We should have peaceful relations with the Russians. And we should limit our involvement in the middle east. But our leaders should make those decisions free of outside influence, whether it comes from Russia or Israel  or Saudi Arabia or any other nation.

I think our leaders are influenced too much by other nations. Whatever happened to the National Interest? Now we hear the US wants to steal Syrian oil. If nations don't behave, all i…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/energy/caterpillar-confirms-kaleckis-historical-truth-about-the-business-cycle?post=177347&uid=4798

Caterpillar's CEO, Jim Umpleby has told investors that there will be no new plants constructed even though orders have tripled for the company. From this Reuters article we see that:

Years of watching Caterpillar and other big manufacturers cut inventories, close plants and axe workers in the last downturn has embedded caution in Kirsh’s ambition to expand after the surge in orders, reflecting a more fundamental shift in how many industrial businesses view expansions, according to interviews with Caterpillar executives, more than a half-dozen Caterpillar suppliers and U.S. economic data.
“I just wasn’t sure it was real,” said Kirsh, speaking from a windowless office at the front of Kirsh Foundry Inc., in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin, which makes metal parts for Caterpillar and other customers.
Even wit…

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/trump-gives-russia-amazing-leverage-over-the-oil-market?post=177015&uid=4798

Donald Trump has given Russia's increased leverage over the world oil market. His policies towards Iran and Venezuela are putting output at risk. Iran will benefit greatly from higher oil prices as they ramp down production. As the chart below shows, Russia is not producing more oil either. But the oil being produced is becoming ever more valuable.

Donald Trump has put the trade war on hold as it pertains to China. But Russia, the EU and Japan are still making trade war noise since Trump not only raised tariffs on Russian steel, but also on Japan, an ally of the United States. So, we have the uncomfortable reality that China gets a break and Japan, an ally, does not.

Russia has power not only to impose tariffs, but also the power to reduce oil production. With the China/Russia oil deal likely falling…