Kyle Bass Says Helicopter Money Is the Only Way Out

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics-education/kyle-bass-says-helicopter-money-is-the-only-way-out?post=100019&uid=4798


Kyle Bass had an interesting take on the state of the Fed's effectiveness. He concluded by saying that helicopter money is the only way out, which is the most important thing that he said, but he said other interesting things as well that make helicopter money look like the only way that all central banks can offer stimulus at the same time, throughout the world. 

As Tyler Durden has said, Bass believes that QE doesn't work well when everyone is doing it. In fact, he says a central banker told him that QE should only be done by one nation. That severely limits the effectiveness of QE when everyone is doing it. He goes on to say that non sterilized QE, which is more like helicopter money, must be the only tool left for the central banks.

Permission granted by J Kyle Bass Wikipedia
Non Sterilized QE means that the central bank expands base money without offsetting that expansion with a contraction elsewhere. Here is the Investopedia definition of sterilization. 

Sterilized intervention involves two separate transactions: 1) the sale or purchase of foreign currency assets, and 2) an open market operation involving the purchase or sale of U.S. government securities (in the same size as the first transaction). The open market operation effectively offsets or sterilizes the impact of the intervention on the monetary base.
Of course, real helicopter money as defined by Eric Lonergan is non sterilized. It amounts to a permanent increase in the money supply by offering everyone money in place of lending it to them. It does not require the usage of bonds, and it does not increase the debt of government, it only expands the balance sheet of the central banks. It would be shared by the central bank in a window of 12 to 18 months, allowing the central bank to monitor the goal of getting rates to move higher off the zero bound and out of negative where necessary. It would not be Universal Basic Income, which would require permanent transfers of money to the people.

This is a precise definition of helicopter money as I discussed Lonergan:

I checked with Mr Lonergan prior to writing this article, and he has confirmed that HM does not involve the issuance of treasury bonds as collateral. Former Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota always speaks of treasury bonds being issued for the purpose of spreading HM. But according to Lonergan, Kocherlakota is simply not correct in his analysis of what HM is. This is not to say there are laws that need to be changed from nation to nation to make this process work. But the issuance of treasury bonds is just QE again, but for the people. Helicopter money is much more powerful than QE! It is an alternative to QE.

I have to mention another most interesting thing Kyle Bass said regarding negative interest rates from the Tyler Durden link above:

And this idea of negative interest rates realize...it's interesting, academically negative interest rates look like they work on paper. And in reality, what these central bank heads are realizing, whether you're in Denmark or Japan or any of these economies, is savers think, "Well, I just need to save more if I'm not going to earn anything on my savings..."
I argued this point as well, that savers will save more, not less, so negative rates may not serve as a stimulus under those circumstances but will be shown to be a hindrance to economic prosperity.

See also:

Fed Tricksters, Put Your Monetarism Where Your Mouths Are 

And:

Responsibly Expand the Monetary Base Before It Is Too Late

And:

Riksbank: Cash Must Be a Protected Legal Right for Good Reason






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