Showing posts from August, 2018

Should Cable TV Fear AT&T DirecTV Now?

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: Should cable TV fear AT&T's DirecTV Now? Well, the answer is probably. If people need around a hundred dollars per month in savings, it makes sense to go with DirecTV Now. After all, it is not expensive anymore like the pure satellite service once was. It is a streaming service. However, it streams to devices. If you don't have a device for your TV, it won't stream to your TV. But AT&T, which took over DirecTV in 2015, is not adding satellite fees to the service as long as you are under contract. But there are a few issues with DirecTV Now. The service is only a few months old and there have been bugs. Frozen screens are a possibility. Improvement is likely. But for people who can afford the constant rise of cable prices, it may not be the best choice. That is not to say that cable is perfect when it

Interest Rates Are Not a Leading Indicator

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: Interest rates are not a leading indicator. Or at least they are not a dependable leading indicator. Scott Sumner posts that that bond market was a leading indicator of the 1st quarter GDP decline to .7 percent. He went on to comment about hard data. More on that later. However, we should take a look at the graph showing the overlapping 10 year and the real GDP: Real GDP in Blue. Interest Rates on 10 Year T Bond in Red It is certainly true that in the Great Recession and in other recessions, the decline in real GDP was in no way preceded by a decline in the 10 year yield. And it is true that in in the Great Recession, the decline in the 10 year was a lagging indicator. And, the decline in the 10 year yield between 1980 and 1998 took place while real GDP was actually increasing. Sumner w