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Showing posts from February, 2020

The Achilles Heel of Trump's Tariffs

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This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/the-achilles-heel-of-trumps-tariffs?post=181415&uid=4798

The Trump Tariff plans have an Achilles Heel. We know that there are basic weaknesses that can be found in all tariff plans. For example, the consumer in the US is very weak, tariffs have failed in history, etc. But the real weakness of the plans for our time is the global supply chain.

As auto companies turn on Trump, we are learning more about them. General Motors has said it may have to shrink the presence of its operations in America, and we can read into this, to avoid tariffs from Europe and the rest of the world.

Cars made in the USA are loaded with a certain percentage of foreign parts. It is this supply chain reality that makes it impossible for companies like Kia to put more factories in the US while tariffs are in place. The investment would be huge, and immediately roughly 30 percent of the car would be subjec…

The Mainstream Media Attack on US Sovereignty on Climate Change

There is a disturbing behavior taking place with mainstream media on the subject of climate change. The number of articles from US and European media opposing Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris Accord compared to those backing Trump are disturbingly lopsided in terms of numbers. This does not mean that I support Trump as president. He has to go. He is a racist.

Before listing a few of these articles I have to point out that the science of global warming is in dispute. That is, it is likely that the 1. 8 degree target for the Paris Accord will do nothing to save the world from global warming. It has been said that this is not going to make a difference. Scientists have said this.

So, if it is not going to make any difference, what is the justification for the cost? The cost will be massive, in terms of energy costs and jobs. If jobs are created, most of them will be created in tech areas and not in the areas of rural America that are hurting. And all this for dubious…

Yes There WAS A Housing Bubble

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This article was first published by me at talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/real-estate--reits/yes-there-was-a-housing-bubble?post=181387&uid=4798

Scott Sumner is dead wrong about the housing bubble last decade. Here is his view on the matter, recently published on his interesting blog, The Money Illusion:


There are two powerful pieces of evidence against the claim that the US housing market was overvalued.  First, many who made that claim also said the same thing about housing markets in Canada, Australia, the UK, and other countries.  And yet many of those other countries did not crash.  Even worse, America’s housing market has mostly recovered, and yet I see almost no one currently saying “America’s in a huge housing bubble, and when it crashes we’ll have another Great Recession”.  So why continue to claim the 2008 recession was caused by a housing bubble that no longer even looks like a bubble at all?
The problem with his analysis is that last decade, mortgage rates…