Posts

Showing posts from March, 2020

Suicide Watch: Farmers Are Hurting, Mr. Trump

Image
This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/suicide-watch-farmers-are-hurting-mr-trump?post=182941&uid=4798

Farmers are losing ground under Donald Trump. Farm gross receipts grew from the end of the Great Recession peaking in Q2 of 2014. Under Barack Obama, receipts looked good until a steady decline caused a likely defeat for Hillary Clinton in rural states.

The only problem is that Donald Trump is putting farmers on the front line with trade. There is a mental health danger discussed below as well as farmers being subject to demand shocks that come with trade uncertainty.

So the following chart is one to watch, though Trump was failing them miserably before the tariff applications, although NAFTA was in discussion. There will be financial and real bloodshed from suicide out in the field unless farmers can convince POTUS to stop sacrificing a group that is very important to the well being of all Americans.

The decline was pr…

Trump's Punishment of China: The Start of a Radical Rejection of Foreign Capital?

This article was first published by me on Talkmarkets: https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/trumps-punishment-of-china-the-start-of-a-radical-rejection-of-foreign-capital?post=182537&uid=4798

Donald Trump really wants to punish China and the world. We can focus on China and see what will happen to our relationship with the world. Tariffs keep escalating. Trump says the trade war is easy to win. Chinese stocks are leveraged as collateral to other deals, and are subject to margin calls. There may be some weakness in China.

The one thing we need to know about Donald Trump is that he has certain principles. They can be dangerous, and against all sound economic reasoning. But that doesn't matter to him. His tariffs are one manifestation. His desire to buy back treasuries on the cheap is another manifestation.

And yet, reading the Chinese is difficult. If the going gets rough, and as the stock markets in China continue to decline, China will likely sell a lot of US Treasu…